Scotland Set to Miss Child Poverty Targets by Wide Margin, Warns Joseph Rowntree Foundation

Scotland is on track to fall well short of its legally binding child poverty targets, according to a new report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), one of the UK's most prominent social reform charities. The foundation warns that without significant changes to policy and public services, the Scottish government's pledges to reduce child poverty will not be met.

The JRF's "Poverty in Scotland" report concludes that one in five children north of the border is living in relative poverty, and that current government plans lack the scale and ambition needed to shift the dial. The charity is calling on ministers to develop what it describes as a much bolder and properly funded plan to tackle the problem.

In 2017, the Scottish Parliament passed legislation requiring ministers to meet four key poverty reduction targets. Among these was a commitment to bring the share of children living in relative poverty below 10% by 2030. However, the JRF's latest analysis found that the figure has remained stubbornly high, averaging 21% between 2022 and 2025. By comparison, the UK-wide average stands at 28%.

Relative poverty is defined as a household having disposable income, after housing costs, that falls below 60% of the UK median, adjusted for family size and composition. Overall, the report estimates that 940,000 people in Scotland — equivalent to 17% of the population — are living in relative poverty.

The charity acknowledged that some progress has been made but argued that the Scottish government's existing strategies will not deliver the scale of change required. It described the reasons behind the failure as complex, pointing to factors including UK government austerity, the ongoing cost of living crisis, and what it called a dysfunctional relationship between local and national government in Scotland.

Scotland's Social Justice and Housing Secretary, Shirley-Anne Somerville, is currently overseeing a review of the poverty reduction goals after some interim targets were missed and data collection methods were adjusted, complicating efforts to assess progress accurately. The targets rely on annual figures, which can be volatile, and both the JRF and the Scottish government agree that three-year averages provide a more reliable picture.

The JRF has urged Somerville not to weaken the goals but instead to set what it calls stretching, statutory, income-based poverty-reduction targets backed by strong accountability measures. The foundation's report also highlighted that relative poverty rates are highest — at 47% — among children in ethnic minority families, a disparity that underscores the uneven impact of deprivation across Scottish society.

The report further found that 11% of Scotland's overall population is defined as being in deep poverty, while 7% is classified as being in very deep poverty. These figures suggest that for many families, hardship is not a temporary setback but a persistent and severe condition.

Eradicating child poverty has been a central pillar of First Minister John Swinney's political agenda since he took office. In his first interview after being sworn in at the Court of Session in Edinburgh in 2024, he described the issue as his overriding priority. During this year's Holyrood election campaign, the SNP leader repeated his determination to eradicate child poverty.

However, the JRF says there is now an increasing disconnect between such political rhetoric and the reality of life for families in poverty across Scotland. The charity's findings suggest that despite the high-level commitment, the lived experience of many households has not improved enough to meet the government's own legal obligations.

In a statement issued ahead of the report's publication, Somerville pointed to the Scottish child payment as a key achievement, saying it was providing unparalleled financial support to the families of more than 320,000 children. She also said the government would do more by expanding breakfast clubs for children and investing over £40m in improving access to transport and skills for parents. Overall, she added, the government is committing around £3.5bn in 2026-27 to policies that tackle poverty and the cost of living.

The JRF report offers a series of policy recommendations it believes could help reduce poverty. These include creating flexible, well-paid jobs, particularly in parts of Scotland where people cannot easily find work near their homes. It also calls for expanded access to high-quality, affordable childcare with the flexibility that allows parents in low-income families to take up employment.

Additionally, the foundation urges the maintenance of adequate social security payments, especially for people with disabilities who may have to fund their own care. It also stresses the importance of maintaining and improving the provision of social and affordable housing, which has helped Scotland keep its poverty rate below the UK average.

The report's findings place renewed pressure on the Scottish government to demonstrate that its anti-poverty strategy is delivering measurable results. With the 2030 deadline for the legal targets approaching, the JRF's warning serves as a stark reminder that without radical change, Scotland risks leaving hundreds of thousands of children in poverty for years to come.